There remains a debate on who said this: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, Sir?" Was it the British economist John Maynard Keynes or the American economist Paul Samuelson. Irrespective of who said it, this sentiment appears to have found resonance in ITC's boardroom in recent years.
India's services sector activity moderated in December as business activity and sales rose at a softer pace, while price pressures and the possibility of new waves of Covid-19 affected business sentiment, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell from 58.1 in November to a three-month low of 55.5 in December. The rates of expansion moderated but were nevertheless "marked" by historical standards, the survey said.
The US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, global cues, macroeconomic data announcements and the ongoing quarterly earnings are the major triggers that will dictate trends in stock markets this week, analysts said. Besides, the trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be tracked. "All eyes are on the outcome of the US Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for November 1, particularly due to the multi-year high levels of the US bond yields.
India's services sector activity expanded at the strongest pace in ten-and-a-half years in October, driven by a substantial upturn in business activity amid favourable demand conditions, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. Companies indicated that a notable pick-up in new business led to the fastest expansion in output in over a decade and as a result more jobs were created, even though business confidence remained subdued due to growing inflationary concerns. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index rose from 55.2 in September to 58.4 in October, signalling the strongest rate of growth in ten-and-a-half years.
Institutional investments in Indian real estate have seen a strong start to 2025, with inflows reaching $ 1.3 billion in the first quarter - a 31 per cent year-on-year (YoY) increase. This growth was primarily driven by domestic investments, which accounted for 60 per cent of the total inflows during the quarter. With $ 0.8 billion inflows, domestic investments saw a 75 per cent annual rise and were largely focused on industrial & warehousing and office segments.
India's services sector activities improved further and expanded at strongest rate in over 11 years in May, supported by a substantial pick-up in new business growth, even as input cost inflation climbed to a record high, a monthly survey said on Friday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index jumped to 58.9 in May, up from 57.9 in April, amid better underlying demand and strong inflows of new work. For the tenth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
A reading above 50 means the sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 means contraction.
The Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers' Index, which tracks the services sector firms on a monthly basis, stood at 50.3 in February, up from 48.7 registered in January.
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a score below this mark means contraction
The pace of economic growth in emerging markets continued to revive from the stagnation seen earlier in the year.
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) State of the Economy report for October acknowledged a slowdown in some high-frequency indicators but expressed confidence in a recovery, aided by consumption demand during the festival season. "In India, aggregate demand is poised to shrug off the temporary slowdown in momentum in the second quarter of 2024-25 as festival demand picks up pace and consumer confidence improves," said the report released on Monday.
India's services sector activity moderated further in January as new business rose at a noticeably slower rate amid the escalation of the pandemic, reintroduction of restrictions and inflationary pressures, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell to 51.5 in January, down from 55.5 in December, pointing to the slowest rate of expansion in the current six-month sequence of growth. For the sixth straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output.
Investor confidence in value mutual funds remains robust, with the category witnessing an inflow of Rs 1,556 crore in January, indicating a shift in their focus towards fundamentally strong yet undervalued stocks.
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors are the crucial factors to drive equity markets in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Monday for Gandhi Jayanti. "While global cues will continue to dictate trends in local markets, focus will shift to RBI's monetary policy announcement on Friday. "Although the market is expecting a status quo on interest rates, global concerns like rising US dollar index and bond yields coupled with surging crude oil prices continue to weigh on investors' minds.
The HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing industry climbed from 49.6 in October to 51.3 in November on the back of a rebound in new orders and output.
China posted the sharpest increase in output for 15 months, while India saw the steepest expansion since February 2013.
The growth was primarily driven by domestic investments, which accounted for 60 per cent of the total inflows during the first quarter of the financial year.
India's services sector remained in contraction territory for the third straight month in July, as business activity, new orders and employment declined further largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic and local restrictions, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index rose from 41.2 in June to 45.4 in July, but was stuck in the red due to subdued demand conditions amid the COVID-19 crisis. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
India's services sector activities contracted further in June as the intensification of the COVID-19 crisis and reintroduction of containment measures restricted demand, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index fell from 46.4 in May to 41.2 in June, as new work intakes and output contracted at the fastest rates since July 2020, which prompted companies to reduce employment again. Subdued demand conditions resulted in a second successive monthly drop in new business received by services firms.
Among the Sensex firms, ITC, NTPC, Axis Bank, Larsen & Toubro, Bajaj Finance, Asian Paints and Tata Steel were the major gainers. Mahindra & Mahindra, Wipro, Maruti, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank and HDFC Bank were among the laggards.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors' sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said. In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24.
Interim Budget, the US Federal policy decision and quarterly earnings will be the major drivers for stock markets which may also see some consolidation this week, say analysts. Besides, investors would also focus on the trading activity of foreign investors and global trends for further cues. From the macroeconomic front, the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled to be announced on Thursday.
Among the Sensex firms, Asian Paints, Tata Steel, HCL Technologies, Nestle, Maruti, JSW Steel, NTPC and Larsen & Toubro were the major laggards. Sun Pharma, Bajaj Finserv, Reliance Industries, State Bank of India and Bharti Airtel were the gainers.
Stock markets will be largely driven by global trends and macroeconomic data announcements in a holiday-shortened week which may see volatility amid monthly derivatives expiry, say analysts. Equity markets will remain closed on Monday for Gurunanak Jayanti. Trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of the rupee against the dollar will also be tracked by investors.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors, outcome of state elections and RBI's interest rate decision are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "Global markets are currently in a fabulous mood. The US 10-year bond yield and the dollar index are also cooling off, which gives strength to the market. These factors will be closely monitored, as they have the potential to influence market sentiment," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd. On the political front, the results of assembly elections in five states are eagerly anticipated, Gour said.
The current spurt in the stock market is on account of strong fundamentals and robust corporate earnings and retail investors can look for buying opportunities to accumulate quality stocks, experts said.
The Indian economy is likely to post better than anticipated growth in the second quarter (July-September) owing to robust urban consumption and expansion in services, a Business Standard analysis of high-frequency indicators showed. While gross domestic product growth in the September quarter is expected to come below the 7.8 per cent print in the June quarter due to a favourable base fading, analysts say the print will be much closer to 7 per cent than the 6.5 per cent anticipated earlier. While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had estimated 6.5 per cent growth for July-September, last month Governor Shaktikanta Das said the growth figure would surprise on the upside.
With factory production, activities across the private sector saw the biggest drop in over three years
Meanwhile, outlook for global emerging markets remained relatively weak in September.
Its 'failure not just affects the military's effectiveness but could also be politically vulnerable for the BJP,' observes Ajai Shukla.
Value mutual funds have witnessed robust investor interest, garnering Rs 22,757 crore in inflows in 2024, nearly double the amount seen in 2023, fueled by impressive returns generated by the segment. This surge reflects a shift in investor focus towards fundamentally strong yet undervalued stocks.
The HSBC/Markit purchasing managers index for the services industry inched up to 47.1 in October from 44.6 in September, the fourth successive monthly contraction of service sector output across India.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers Index for the services industry fell to 46.7 in December from 47.2 in November, registering the sixth consecutive monthly drop in output levels, the longest period of continuous reduction since the 2008/2009 global financial crisis.
Although the company has shown willingness to talk to its workers and accept their key demands, it is CITU that is causing a roadblock to a solution.
The domestic equity market, which is on a record-breaking spree, will focus on macroeconomic data announcements, movement in global stocks and the US Fed minutes to get further direction, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) will also innfluence investors.From the domestic macroeconomic front, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector will be released on Monday, and that o,f the services sector on Wednesday. Investors, this week, will keenly watch major global market events, icluding the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, scheduled to be out on Wednesday.
Equity market will be guided by global trends, macroeconomic data announcement and foreign fund movement in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Movement of the rupee and Brent crude oil will also remain in focus this week, they added. "The bulls need some support from global markets to continue Friday's momentum.
Investors indulged in profit booking at attractive and higher valuations
